Bluffer’s Guide: Fortress China[A](2)

布拉夫手册:中国堡垒[A]

Date:2010-01-05 Source:环球网博客 By:无定河边骨 Viewed:

1. Intro / 简介

Militarily, China is a country of contrasts, with undoubtedly among the most powerful militaries in the world. A hot topic is whether China could beat USA in a conventional war – You can make your own mind up on that point, but the mere fact informed people discuss that shows that irrespective of what the naysayers would have us believe, China is a force to be reckoned with.

从军事上讲,中国毫无疑问地是世界上最强大的几个国家中的一员。有一个热点话题就是中国是否能在一场传统战争中击败美国——在这一点上你可以保留自己的观点,但是仅仅从消息灵通人士的讨论中就可以了解到,无论对这一观点持否定态度的人怎么样来说服我们,中国都是一支需要正视的力量。

Like many countries China deploys ground-based air-defenses to protect against sudden air attack. The fact that China’s arsenal is far larger than most countries is more a factor of the size of the country and growing world standing, rather than an indicator of a militarized society IMO. Armed with a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons and rapidly maturing delivery capabilities, China has little to worry about in terms of major invasion.

和许多的其它国家一样中国部署了地基的防空系统来抵御来自空中的突击。中国的军火库远远比其它国家庞大的原因与其说是代表了一种藏兵于民的倾向,倒不如说是由于其辽阔的幅员和崛起的地位。在令人恐怖的核武库的武装下,以及快速发展成熟的投射能力,就重大入侵而言中国没有什么需要担心的。

Nonetheless China is surrounded by potential adversaries, particularly the US pacific forces and Taiwan. With Taiwan, the aggressor is definitely China of course. China also watches the sustained military might of Japan and flowering capabilities of South Korea with a weather eye. Russia flits from being friend to cold neighbor every few years; don’t let the fact that China has been a major arms customer fool you. Elsewhere China continues to have cold relations with its new nuclear rival, and old territorial rival, India. Pakistan is a friend and ally but now has nuclear weapons and thanks to China the capability to deliver them to Chinese cities so in the longer run things may get interesting there. Vietnam also is a potential threat but any conflict with them would be very localized. The last neighbors, the former Soviet states on the Western fringes of China, are somewhat of a mixed bunch but unlikely to be serious adversaries.

尽管如此,中国还是处于潜在敌人的包围之中,特别是美军在太平洋的力量以及台湾。对于台湾而言,入侵者毫无疑问地就是中国大陆。中国还对日本持续发展的军力以及韩国在军事各方面的进步保持警惕。俄罗斯每隔短短的几年就要从曾经的朋友变成冷漠的邻居;不要因为中国成为了最大的军火客户而让你忘乎所以。此外中国继续与新的核邻居,也就是与之有边界争端的印度冷眼相向。巴基斯坦是一个朋友和盟国,在中国的帮助下它现在也有了核武器,但同时也具有了把它们投向中国城市的的能力,因此从长远来看事情会变得更加有趣。越南也同样是一个潜在的威胁,但与其相关的任何冲突都会是相当局部的。最后,还有那些环绕在中国西部边境的前苏联国家,它们有点象是一道栅栏,但是看起来并不可能会成为真正的敌人。

In the 1950s a Communist China courted Soviet support, but after Stalin’s death this relationship soon faltered and the Communist countries where thrown into a three-way cold war with each other and the West. Certainly in USSR many saw China as a far more likely adversary than USA in 1960s and some Stalinist hardliners may even have plotted to start a nuclear war between US and China as a means of naturalizing Mao (see “Red Star Rogue”).

上世纪50年代,共产主义中国得到了苏联的援助,但是在斯大林去世之后这种关系很快停顿,共产主义国家之间的关系与同西方国家的关系一样陷入了冷战。上个世纪60年代前苏联还一度视中国为比美国更为可能的入侵国家,一些奉行强硬路线的斯大林主义者甚至还密谋策划过中美之间的核战争来除掉毛泽东(参见《Red Star Rogue》)

What this meant for China’s air defenses wasn’t good. China had only received a handful of early model SA-2 Guidelines which were already nearly obsolete. These were quickly reverse engineered and entered service as the HQ-1 and soon after HQ-2 systems. The HQ-2 remains a major cornerstone of Chinese air defenses. Chinese attempts at indigenous SAMs were somewhat poor even after an injection of Western technologies during the 1970s and 80s when China was an awkward bedfellow of the West against the USSR.

这一切都说明中国的防空不行的话将意味着什么。中国只接收过一批几乎是已经过时的SA-2早期型号。它们被很快地仿制并以HQ-1型以及随后的HQ-2型的身份服役。HQ-2被认为是中国防空的奠基石。中国在本土地对空导弹方面的努力成果非常有限,甚于在上世纪70年代至80年代,中国与西方国家同床异梦联手对付前苏联的期间引入西方技术之后也是这样。

Coinciding with the implosion of the Soviet Union, Russia was plunged into financial turmoil and desperate to sell its military technology, even to its old foe China. Consequently China imported advanced SAM systems. This also helped China’s slow indigenous programs.

与前苏联解体时一样,俄罗斯也挣扎在金融动荡之中并不顾一切地推销军事技术,甚至对老冤家中国也不例外。中国因此进口到了先进的地对空导弹系统。这同样帮助了进展缓慢的中国自主研发项目。

In the 200s China deploys are relatively wide range of advanced Russian and indigenous systems, backed up by large quantities of legacy HQ-2 systems.

在中国所部署的数量超过200套的防空系统当中,相当大的部分是先进的俄罗斯防空系统和国产系统, 历史遗留的大量HQ-2防空系统则转为备用。

Summarizing the above, in the 1960s-80s the main strategic adversary was USSR and consequently most air defenses are concentrated in the north of the country, and are often deployed on the north side of cities even today. However, in the 1990s and 2000s the focus has returned to the financial hub of Shanghai (and now Hong Kong) and the Taiwan Straight.

总而言之,中国在上世纪60年代至80年代间的主要战略对手是前苏联,绝大多数的防空系统都集中在了中国北方,甚至是时至今日也还都是部署在城市的北方。但是,到了上世纪90年代至新世纪,防空的重点又回到了做为金融中心的上海(还有现在的香港)和台湾海峡。

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